I made an assertion in a post What Makes Buildings Valuable In Puerto Rico? that "many" players win with such and such a strategy, in a particular game which seemed at least plausible to me (a beginner). Whereby a better, more experienced player challenged me by saying "what is your source?"
"My source," I answered, was your post on how you were beaten by this strategy. That's what inspired me to explore its merits.
Board and card games are (mostly) "chance" phenomena, unlike mathematical phenomena, which is to say that you won't come up with the same result every time, even if you play the same way every time (ok, you would in "deterministic" games like chess.)
Given this fact, is it true that "expertise" is worth less in games than in some other endeavors? And can one instead rely more on "experience" in making game judgments?